The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is likely to dash Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s hopes of securing a third consecutive term in Kerala. As the state approaches its Assembly elections on April 9, 2026, exit polls indicate a potential shift in power dynamics that could reshape Kerala’s political landscape.
According to recent surveys, the UDF is projected to secure between 70-75 seats out of 140, while the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) may capture around 60-65 seats. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), meanwhile, is expected to win a mere 3-5 seats.
The backdrop to this electoral battle is significant. The 2026 Assembly election follows a historic verdict in the 2021 polls when the LDF broke Kerala’s long-standing pattern of alternating governments every five years. Voter turnout has been robust, with reports indicating a participation rate of 78.27%, reflecting a keen public interest in this pivotal election.
Political analysts suggest that the UDF’s resurgence stems from widespread discontent with the current government’s handling of various issues. Exit polls show a neck-and-neck contest between the UDF and LDF, with many voters eager for change. However, experts caution that exit polls are just predictions based on surveys and can turn out to be wrong on result day.
Key statistics:
- The majority mark in the Kerala Assembly is 71 seats.
- The UDF aims to replace the current LDF government.
- Projected seats for UDF by P-Marq range from 71-79.
- People’s Pulse suggests UDF could secure between 75-85 seats.
- Axis My India predicts UDF might achieve between 78-90 seats.
The stakes are high for both parties as they prepare for what promises to be a fiercely contested election. With Pinarayi Vijayan at the helm of the LDF and Congress rallying behind its candidates, all eyes will be on Kerala come April.
